2/20/17:

Dow Dissection

 

Taking another look at the Dow (DIA) and the terminating wedge throw over, we see that a top may have been reached on Thursday, 2/16/17.

 

Friday, 2/17, was a gap-lower open with the Dow attempting to close the gap throughout the entire session.

 

Note how price action is ‘respecting’ the upper wedge line.  The market itself is letting us know the upper line is important.

 

A move back down into that wedge is a time tested sell signal.  Here is a link to another review of the same market with a similar conclusion.

1/14/17:  Dow Jones 30 Projected High, 20,200

 

With everyone expecting an immediate sell-off after inauguration, the probability is for continued upside.

 

The analysis for the Dow Jones (DIA) shows a time window of January 20^th through the 30^th as a potential high point.

1/11/17:  Dow Upward Energy is Spent ...

1/7/17:  Dow 20,000

If the DIA analysis is correct, the Dow Jones is scheduled to reach a peak near 20,200 around the 25^th of January.

 

The two components of the Dow that appear to the biggest players in this move are Microsoft (MSFT) and J.P. Morgan (JPM).

 

Apple (AAPL) is playing a role and moving upward but it’s well off new highs (having topped out on April 28^th of 2015).

 

It goes without saying, the media is clueless or if they know (not likely) they’re not telling anyone … certainly not us.

 

When it all implodes, and there’s no bailout this time (because interest rates may be too high), where do we think the money will come from to save the banks and prop up the market? 

 

Let’s try this link.  Depending on data sources and estimates, there’s around $12‑Trillion, in IRA accounts.  Problem solved.

 

From a personal standpoint, after the last meltdown in 2008 – 2009, I cashed out, took the 10% penalty (while it’s still 10% and not 100% ...which could easily be done), paid the taxes and am finished.

 

 

p.s.  I have the link to the Congressional testimony referred to above.  That link is no longer active … how convenient.

 

p.p.s.  Prechter indicates in his book Conquer The Crash that pensions are likely to be seized in this bear market.

 

p.p.p.s.  It's interesting the IRA article attempts to paint the proposal (confiscation) as a complete lie.

 

Well, go ahead.  "If you like your IRA you can keep it."  Didn't we just hear a similar line with healthcare?

12/28/16: Time's up for The Dow

Time may have just run out on Dow 20,000. A wedge can break either higher or lower.  In this case, it looks as if there just isn’t enough energy for more upside.

 

That being the case, and if the latest high is not exceeded, we now move into possibly the most dangerous market (and world) conditions of all time.

 

• “It doesn’t matter if Hillary won, or Trump won.  The economy is toast”  Time stamp:  3:25

12/27/16:  Dow 20,000

We had a terminating wedge in the S&P and now, we have a wedge in the Dow.

 

A Dow projection of 20,200 or so may be the end of the end. Does anyone really think that with $20-trillion in debt, the market is somehow going to keep marching effortlessly higher?

 

Well, of course the mainstream media expects it.  From a personal experience standpoint, any time anyone says they know what’s going to happen next or what the market “should” do, it’s the mark of the rank …repeat, rank amateur.

 

Go ahead, read through two full years of market posts on this site and find the word “should” when applied to market movement.  There must be hundreds of thousands of words on this site … but “should” is not one of those words.

 

Of course, anything can happen in the markets … we could be in some kind of reset event where the market one day just ceases to exist as we know it.

 

The difference is, we recognize the possibility.   The mainstream press and brokers alike, do not.  They still think that we're “investing”.

 

Well, here’s a link to an investment that 'should' last a long time.  J